IBM 5 in 5 2006realty check

IBM's ‘Next five in five' 2006 predictions – were they right?

This is the first time we can see if IBM's 'five in five' predictions are accurate. Among its 2006 predictions: real-time speech translation and 3D Internet. 6/3/2011 6:00:00 AM by Brian Jackson

The problem with making predictions –even ones that seem distant on the horizon –is that eventually, time passes and it becomes clear whether you were right or wrong.

IBM Corp. is now in its fifth year of its Next Five in Five predictions, in which it attempts to synthesize emerging technology trends with societal progress and predict five ways technology will significantly change our lives five years hither. For 2011, they're predictions include talking to 3D holographic representations of our friends, batteries that you can recharge by giving a shake, and reduced traffic congestion because of intelligent road reporting systems.

Slideshow: IBM's Next Five in Five 2011 Predictions

But the really interesting thing about IBM having done this for five years now is we can look back and see how the first set of predictions have panned out. Douglas Heintzman is the director of strategy for IBM's Lotus division and discussed the 2006 predictions at IBM's Battle of the Brains (more formally called the Association for Computing Machinery's International Collegiate Programming Contest or ACM ICPC) in Orlando. Heintzman wouldn't deliver a pass or fail verdict on the predictions, but I'm happy enough to provide those.

Remote healthcare access

The prediction: IBM said that we'd use wireless sensors to track metrics about our health, participate in a virtual check-in with doctors via video-conferencing, and medical records would be made electronic and accessible online by patients.

The verdict: Pass.

While access to electronic health records is hardly a universal experience now, IBM's vision of remote healthcare portals being used to manage chronic conditions has come true. Take for example the Atlantic Health Sciences Corp. in Saint John, N.B. that has a Web portal its diabetic patients use to track their blood sugar levels and learn about how to better manage their condition. Governments are investing in electronic health records and pushing stubborn doctors into adopting them. Software vendors such as Microsoft Corp. have released programs like Health Vault designed to let people be the arbiters of their permanent health records.

3D Internet

The prediction: IBM was enthusiastic about Linden Labs' Second Life and saw those sort of immersive and graphical virtual destinations becoming more mainstream. Virtual worlds would no longer exist in isolated silos, but be interconnected.

The verdict: Fail.

The hype around Second Life in 2006 was at a fever pitch, but the temperature quickly dipped and our Internet looks pretty much like it did five years ago, with a few more Flash animations and embedded video. Instead of 3D virtual worlds, we're spending most of our time on the Web exchanging text and photos on social networks like Facebook.

The failure of Second Life to become mainstream is explained by its abstraction from the real world, Heintzman says. “It needed to map back onto first life much more immediately.”

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If the avatars' facial expressions had changed to match our real expressions by using video-mapping technology, that would add emotional context to online exchanges, he says. Or if users could enter and exit conversations more naturally –say by approaching a group and hearing the conversation get louder, or leaving a group and hearing those voices fade away.

Meanwhile, social networking technology has managed to hit the nail on the head. “Social networking allows for serendipitous alignment of people that are thinking through the same problem sets,” Heintzman says.

But Heintzman says we may yet see 3D worlds fill more online spaces, perhaps combining with current social networking technology.

Context-aware mobile phones

The prediction: Mobile devices would use presence technology to learn and adapt to the preferences and needs of users, IBM said. Phones would learn about a user's whereabouts and likes and react intelligently to meet them.

The verdict: Pass.

Thanks to GPS and Wi-Fi hotspot mapping by the likes of Google, our smartphones are now aware of our location within a few meters. Other apps remind us of our errands when we're near a store where we can complete that task. Bluetooth pairing allows our mobile devices to start working with wireless headsets or computers as soon as they're within range.

Heintzman enjoyed his devices' context-aware abilities while visiting Sea World. “I pulled up satellite mode on Google Maps to help me navigate around the park,” he says.

Real-time speech translation

The prediction: IBM thought we'd be using technology equivalent to Star Trek's universal translator –allowing two people speaking different languages to understand each other fluidly.

The verdict: Fail.

Though IBM's MASTOR project is still in the works to allow for real-time, two-way translation of free form conversational speech, this is still a future aspiration more than a present reality. A beta version of Google Tranlsate allows for speech to text translation for some languages, but its execution is far from perfect. Even text-to-text translation is still imperfect, often resulting in confusing or humourous translations.

Heintzman says IBM's Watson computer could help better translate languages, because it has the semantic understanding to evaluate what it is saying. Current translation technology relies on brute-force analysis of syntax and grammar, which doesn't always turn out well.

Nanotechnology will be used to manage our environment

The prediction: Nanotechnology –literally the programming of molecule-sized robots and organisms –would be used to improve water distribution and filtration, and more efficiently capture solar power, IBM predicted.

The verdict: Pass –mostly.

Solar panels have progressed in the past five years thanks to the use of nanotechnology applications. San Jose, Calif.-based Nanosolar Inc. uses nanoparticle inks to print its solar cells and is looking to produce efficient solar cells as economically as possible.

IBM has pushed the benchmarks for solar panel efficiency in the lab, Heintzman says. Trains in Germany use solar panels on every second rooftop to glean power, showing that distributed energy distribution has caught on.

2012 IBM 5 in 5

* Mind reading is no longer science fiction.
* You will be able to power your home with the energy you create
yourself.
* You will never need a password again.
* The digital divide will cease to exist.
* Junk mail will become priority mail.

The world is changing fast--maybe faster than we ever thought. And within five years, science fiction is going to turn into non-fiction. We'll be able to read each other's minds, forget all our passwords, and create all our own homes' energy.

These are just three of the five predictions IBM announced this morning as part of its annual "5 in 5" prognostication project.

The list is meant to promote long-term work being done under Big Blue's Smarter Planet initiative--and the company says "5 in 5" already has a track record of success. In 2008, IBM says, it suggested that within five years, consumers would talk to the Web--and the Web would respond.

This time, the predictions are perhaps a bit more fanciful:

• Mind reading is no longer science fiction.
• You will be able to power your home with the energy you create yourself.
• You will never need a password again.
• The digital divide will cease to exist.
• Junk mail will become priority mail.

It would seem the most interesting idea posited by IBM is the one about reading minds. But lest you think that what its scientists are saying is that you'll be able to glare at a friend--or perhaps more importantly, an enemy--and know what he or she is thinking, that may be more than five years off. Rather, this is about how our brains might someday be synced with computing devices:

 If you just need to think about calling someone, it happens. Or you can control the cursor on a computer screen just by thinking about where you want to move it.

Scientists in the field of bioinformatics have designed headsets with advanced sensors to read electrical brain activity that can recognize facial expressions, excitement and concentration levels, and thoughts of a person without them physically taking any actions.

Within five years, we will begin to see early applications of this technology in the gaming and entertainment industry. Furthermore, doctors could use the technology to test brain patterns, possibly even assist in rehabilitation from strokes and to help in understanding brain disorders, such as autism.

Another potentially world-changing development that IBM thinks is less than five years away is that we're soon going to be able to produce all the energy we need for our home--ourselves. This is a radical idea, and one that could shake up the entire energy industry. But in a world where every new pound of carbon dioxide that goes into the atmosphere has the potential to help wreak havoc on the planet, this could be a very, very good thing if it turns out to be true.

"Anything that moves or produces heat has the potential to create energy that can be captured," an IBM "5 in 5" release reads. "Walking. Jogging. Bicycling. The heat from your computer. Even the water flowing through your pipes. Advances in renewable energy technology will allow individuals to collect this kinetic energy, which now goes to waste, and use it to help power our homes, offices and cities."

That means, IBM believes, that we may be able to generate power with, for example, the help of small widgets we put in the spokes of our bikes.

No more passwords
Another big innovation IBM believes could soon be improving everyday lives is the death of the password. And that, it says, could come within five years due to each human's unique biological underpinnings. "You will no longer need to create, track or remember multiple passwords for various log-ins," says IBM. "Imagine you will be able to walk up to an ATM machine to securely withdraw money by simply speaking your name or looking into a tiny sensor that can recognize the unique patterns in the retina of your eye. Or by doing the same, you can check your account balance on your mobile phone or tablet.

This is all because of a set of systems that may well be on their way down the pike known as multifactor biometrics. And as a result of our individual faces, voices, and retinas, we may soon be able to access all the things that today require passwords without having to remember anything.

Computers will have five senses in 5 years --- IBM 5x5

IBM Predicts the Rise of Cognitive Computing In its annual "5 in 5" prediction, IBM says that within five years, we will see the rise of cognitive computers -- machines that can experience the world in a similar way that humans do through the five senses. Instead of interpreting objects as a set of data points, a cognitive system would look at the object holistically, as an entity. For example, instead of seeing a painting as a canvas with various colors and brushstrokes, a cognitive computer could interpret it simply as da Vinci's The Mona Lisa. Or a fake of The Mona Lisa. Cognitive systems have advantages over traditional computers by being more efficient and able to learn from mistakes.

IBM CEO takes an added role of chairman

ARMONK, N.Y. (AP) — IBM President and CEO Virginia Rometty is taking on the added role of chairman, as Samuel Palmisano prepares to retire at the end of this year.

The technology company said Tuesday that Rometty, 55, will take on the expanded role Oct. 1. Palmisano, 61, will serve as a senior adviser until he retires in December.

Rometty, the company's former sales and marketing chief, became IBM Corp.'s first female CEO in January. Joining the Armonk, N.Y.-based company in 1981 as an engineer, Rometty later was instrumental in the formation of IBM's business services division, including overseeing the $3.5 billion purchase of PricewaterhouseCoopers' consulting business in 2002.

IBM has sustained a nearly decade-long streak of earnings growth as it shook off the economic jitters that have undercut several other technology companies.

New Mainframe computer from IBM

ARMONK, N.Y. (AP) — IBM on Tuesday introduced a new line of mainframe computers the company calls its most powerful and technologically advanced ever.

IBM said its zEnterprise EC12 mainframe server is designed to help clients securely and quickly sift through massive amounts of data, meeting the demands of retail and other clients in the age of "Big Data." Running at 5.5 GHz, IBM said the microprocessor that powers the mainframe is the fastest chip in the world. Processing speed is 25 percent faster than the previous model.

Mainframes are used by corporate clients ranging from banks to chain stores. IBM says the new model could be used by retailers to manage online transactions and analyze clients' buying habits and then use the information to create a "more customized shopping experience," such as a custom coupon issued during a transaction.

"Whether its retail or whether its transportation, making reservations, whatever it is, the system has been built really to help clients do those new types of new-age transactions," said Doug Brown, an IBM vice president of marketing.

IBM says more than $1 billion was spent on research and development for the system at 18 sites worldwide, with most of it in Poughkeepsie, about 40 miles north of its headquarters in Armonk in Westchester County.

The new mainframe is being promoted as one of the most secure systems ever with a tamper-resistant cryptographic co-processor to provide privacy for sensitive transactions.

IBM has been focusing on its software and services divisions, which are more profitable than selling the mainframe computers that made the company famous decades ago. But the sales of those mainframes help feed demand for IBM services.